Wednesday, May 15, 2024

Fantasy Golf: The PGA Championship Preview

I had so much fun in New Orleans a few weeks ago that I'm heading back and bringing the curmudgeonly grandparents with me to navigate four sultry days of thunderstorms and cracked sidewalks while celebrating the anticipated graduation of the eldest grandson. Can't wait to get them down to the French Quarter so we can catch-up with the gang at the Rawhide Lounge. I'm sure there will be questions . . . asked at an inappropriate decibel level. 

Suffice it to say that I'm not counting my chickens until I'm sharing a victory AMF with him at The Boot. It's been a long strange trip that started with about five thousand miles worth of school visits to colleges he apparently didn't want to attend yet applied to anyway. Then there was a gap year, a few COVID quarantines and a couple hurricane evacuations. Now everyone asks what he's going to do next and my answer is that I hope he spends a few years having a great fucking time. As we all well know, the grind will be there when he's ready.   

TWEET OF THE WEEK

One of these days me and Clue are going to cross paths outside of Snake & Jakes and it will be epic . . . until one or both of us inevitably falls down. 

GOLF ANALYSIS

We've reached the point with the majors where you have to take some kind of position on the LIV players and whether their traveling circus adequately prepares them to compete against the best golfers in the world. They placed three in the top ten at Augusta but one of those was recent defector Tyrrell Hatton and their lead dogs, Jon Rahm and Brooks Koepka, both finished tied for 45th. I say they place a couple in the top ten this week but they're all overvalued so I'm not going to bother to hazard a guess on which two. In other words, fuck 'em all. 

The last time they held the PGA Championship at Valhalla Golf Club, Rory held-off Phil Mickelson (and darkness) with a loaded leaderboard that included Rickie Fowler, Henrik Stenson, Jim Furyk and Ernie Els. That bodes well for this year's competition as the top two ranked players in the world come-in on a ridiculous combined heater having won six of the last ten primary PGA Tour events.   

I'm giving Rory the nod over Scottie because I'm a bit of a romantic but more of the golf kind and way less of the guy who just became a father kind. I will never believe that the new dad will play golf with a clean conscience unless he soaks that conscience in booze which doesn't strike me as Scheffler's style. And yes I am aware that Rory has his own personal shit brewing but that sure didn't seem to bother him last Sunday. 

With all that being said, Xander Schauffele actually gets the feature spot as I just used Rory and Scottie was my pick at the Masters. Let's be honest. You can't believe I waited this long to mention that. (Took humility for a test drive there and found the handling a little clunky). As for Xander, my once firmly held belief that he would eventually win a major is now just loosely held but it's still there and this week seems like as good a shot as any.

We're staying in full ball striker/shot maker mode for the next five picks with Ludvig Aberg, Justin Thomas, Cameron Young, Sahith Theegala and Sungjae Im. The last two feel like great values on this track, especially Sungjae who's found his groove since missing the cut at Augusta. 

And the sleepers this week (if you can call the 25th and 29th ranked players in the world "sleepers"), are Chris Kirk and Denny McCarthy. Kirk is a hunch pick based in part on his T26, T16, T10 run through The Players, The Masters and the RBC Heritage. The McCarthy pick is, however, more scientific as he's been on a nice bentgrass green lately and that's what they'll be putting on this week (source: @GolfBetCaddie).

Here is how I would allocate my resources. 

Ludvig Aberg

Top 5

+450

Cameron Young

Top 5

+1000

Sahith Theegala

Top 10

+500

Sungjae Im

Top 10

+600

Denny McCarthy

Top 10

+800

Chris Kirk

Top 20

+350


I'd wish you all luck but I'm pretty sure I'm the one who's gonna need it this weekend.

One and Done Pick: Xander Schauffele
I share what appears to be
the cautious optimism here. 

Other Guy I'd Pick: Rory McIlroy

Sleeper Pick: Denny McCarthy

DraftKings Top Ten Values 

Rory McIlroy

$12,000

Xander Schauffele

$10,900

Ludvig Aberg

$10,500

Justin Thomas

$9,300

Cameron Young

$9,000

Sahith Theegala

$8,100

Sungjae Im

$7,900

Chris Kirk

$6,900

Denny McCarthy

$6,300

Taylor Pendrith

$6,000


Email the Fantasy Golf Report here

Wednesday, May 8, 2024

Fantasy Golf: The Wells Fargo Championship Preview

Happy week after NCAA Men's Lacrosse Selection Sunday to those who celebrate. For those who don't, you've missed-out on the alumni of some of the most elite institutions of higher learning in this country taking to their group chats and social media to demand that wrongs be righted and change be made to a system stacked against them. Never mind that this system selected a tournament field where over 35% of the teams are Duke, Georgetown, Princeton, Johns Hopkins, Notre Dame and the University of Virginia . . . seven schools that combine to produce nearly half of America's douchebags.    

If not for Harvard and Yale having down years and the SEC's lack of participation, the 2024 version of this tournament would have absolutely cornered the market on moms in white jeans and dads in quarter-zips screaming complete nonsense at fields full of people playing a sport that they do not understand. It's a shame that Columbia is the only Ivy that doesn't field a team. Apparently those kids have a lot of energy to burn and maybe they could've actually won a game that mattered.     

Everything is so stupid right now. My son is about to graduate from a fairly prominent southern university (not the one with the wall of frat boys making monkey gestures at the black woman). Last week a small group of protesters setup shop on a tiny patch of his campus and that sparked cries of "Oooohhhh noooo our kids have been through soooo much with COVID and hurricanes and a dining hall that closed at 9:00 on the night my daughter got hungry at 9:03 . . . . THE HUMANITY!!!" 

Hands were literally wrung into a state of carpel tunnel syndrome over this "threat" despite the fact that (a) graduation was still almost three weeks away, and (b) did I mention that this school is in the south with southern cops who wake-up every morning hoping for an excuse to beat-up some college kids? Suffice it to say, the encampment is now gone so we can again flood Facebook with the important questions like "how do I get tickets to graduation?" (you don't need them) and "what are the dads wearing?" (I'd recommend a fucking dunce cap).  

TWEET OF THE WEEK

As a man who has deleted some Bud Lights, I think Hoagie looks downright sexy. 


GOLF ANALYSIS

We get back to some familiar territory this week at Quail Hollow where the PGA Tour has been stopping on a fairly regular basis since 2003. It was the site of Justin Thomas' first PGA Championship win in 2017 but, more importantly, it's where Rory McIlroy has won three times including most recently in 2021. MOST importantly, in 2015 he lit-up a rain soaked course for a third round 61 on his way to a 7 shot win and should face similar conditions this week as the East Coast has established its usual spring aroma of standing sewer water combined with wet dog fur.

I wouldn't fault you for taking a hard look at Xander Schauffele or defending champ Wyndham Clark but it just feels like all trends are colliding in Rory's favor. Here are the other guys I like, especially 2012 champion Rickie Fowler who finished T5 at the 2017 PGA Championship and Justin Rose who just finishes top five every time he shows-up at this joint. 

Tommy Fleetwood

Top 5

+550

Sahith Theegala

Top 5

+550

Rickie Fowler

Top 10

+450

Denny McCarthy

Top 10

+450

Justin Rose

Top 10

+1000


In closing, I just walked six holes in this pea soup and worked-up a George Kennedy from Cool Hand Luke caliber bald man sweat that attracted enough flying insects to definitely give me malaria. It was a good run. See you on the other side.  

One and Done Pick: Rory McIlroy
I honestly believe that Rory will draw
some inspiration from the fact that we
were just in New Orleans "together." 

Other Guy I'd Pick: Wyndham Clark

Sleeper Pick: Rickie Fowler

DraftKings Top Ten Values

Rory McIlroy

$11,800

Tommy Fleetwood

$9,500

Max Homa

$9,400

Sahith Theegala

$9,100

Justin Thomas

$8,500

Adam Scott

$7,700

Stephan Jaeger

$7,500

Denny McCarthy

$7,300

Rickie Fowler

$6,900

Justin Rose

$6,600


The race for my most expensive child was almost over before it started with my first but lately, my third has been making a nice run thanks to the racket that is club sports. But then, out of nowhere, my second oldest appeared on the backstretch this week with a relatively sudden and thoroughly not pre-approved one month study abroad program in Thailand for which you need $1,000 worth of vaccinations when you wait until the day before the trip to get them. Factor-in his inevitable arrest for mouthing-off to a Bangkok cop and we could have a new leader in the clubhouse by June.

                                      THE NEVER COUNT OUT SON #2
                                  HISTORICAL PERFORMANCE CHART

Notables below who are not mentioned above include Viktor Hovland (playing like shit), Sungjae Im (also playing like shit) and Corey Conners (Canadian). Make of all that information what you will.

 

DK Price

2023

2021

2019

2018

2016

Rory McIlroy

$11,800

T47

1st

T8

T16

T4

Xander Schauffele

$11,500

2nd

T14

DNP

T2

DNP

Wyndham Clark

$10,500

1st

T43

MC

DNP

DNP

Ludvig Aberg (Out)

$10,300

DNP

DNP

DNP

DNP

DNP

Patrick Cantlay

$9,800

T21

MC

DNP

DNP

DNP

Tommy Fleetwood

$9,500

T5

T14

DNP

MC

DNP

Max Homa

$9,400

T8

MC

1st

DNP

DNP

Collin Morikawa

$9,300

MC

DNP

DNP

DNP

DNP

Viktor Hovland

$9,200

T43

T3

DNP

DNP

DNP

Sahith Theegala

$9,100

T56

DNP

DNP

DNP

DNP

Hideki Matsuyama

$8,900

DNP

DNP

T31

T76

T11

Cameron Young

$8,800

T59

DNP

DNP

DNP

DNP

Matt Fitzpatrick

$8,700

T35

DNP

DNP

DNP

DNP

Si Woo Kim

$8,600

T43

DNP

DNP

DNP

MC

Justin Thomas

$8,500

T14

T26

DNP

T21

MC

Jordan Spieth

$8,400

MC

DNP

DNP

DNP

DNP

Russell Henley

$8,300

DNP

T72

MC

MC

DNP

Alex Noren

$8,200

MC

DNP

DNP

MC

DNP

Byeong Hun An

$8,100

MC

MC

W/D

T63

MC

Brian Harman

$8,000

MC

T18

T24

74th

T35

Tony Finau

$8,000

T23

MC

T60

T21

T28

Sungjae Im

$7,900

T8

MC

T31

DNP

DNP

Will Zalatoris

$7,900

DNP

MC

DNP

DNP

DNP

Corey Conners

$7,800

T8

T43

DNP

T42

DNP

Jason Day

$7,800

MC

MC

T24

1st

DNP

Sam Burns

$7,700

MC

DNP

DNP

T55

DNP

Adam Scott

$7,700

T5

DNP

DNP

T76

T17

Shane Lowry

$7,600

MC

T65

DNP

T34

MC

C. Bezuidenhout

$7,600

DNP

DNP

DNP

DNP

DNP

Akshay Bhatia

$7,500

T43

MC

DNP

DNP

DNP

Stephan Jaeger

$7,500

T27

DNP

MC

MC

DNP

Harris English

$7,400

T3

T43

T54

DNP

T17

Taylor Pendrith

$7,400

MC

DNP

DNP

DNP

DNP

Denny McCarthy

$7,300

T8

MC

DNP

MC

DNP

Sepp Straka

$7,300

DNP

T54

MC

DNP

DNP

Billy Horschel

$7,200

DNP

DNP

DNP

DNP

DNP

Tom Hoge

$7,200

DNP

MC

T65

T76

T41

Chris Kirk

$7,100

T56

DNP

DNP

DNP

DNP

Adam Schenk

$7,100

MC

MC

T13

MC

DNP

J.T. Poston

$7,000

MC

T26

MC

DNP

DNP

Tom Kim

$7,000

T23

DNP

DNP

DNP

DNP

Keegan Bradley

$6,900

T35

T18

MC

T76

DNP

Rickie Fowler

$6,900

T14

MC

T4

T21

T4

Andrew Putnam

$6,800

W/D

T43

DNP

T82

DNP

Kurt Kitayama

$6,800

MC

DNP

DNP

DNP

DNP

Adam Hadwin

$6,700

MC

MC

T38

T16

T61

Lucas Glover

$6,700

MC

MC

T31

MC

8th

Taylor Moore

$6,700

T27

DNP

DNP

DNP

DNP

Justin Rose

$6,600

DNP

DNP

3rd

DNP

3rd

Austin Eckroat

$6,600

T64

DNP

DNP

DNP

DNP

Brendon Todd

$6,500

T8

DNP

T18

DNP

MC

Matthieu Pavon

$6,500

DNP

DNP

DNP

DNP

DNP

Jake Knapp

$6,500

DNP

DNP

DNP

DNP

DNP

Patrick Rodgers

$6,400

MC

T37

DNP

T34

MC

Cam Davis

$6,400

T59

T26

MC

DNP

DNP

Emiliano Grillo

$6,300

T23

T14

DNP

T9

T61

Webb Simpson

$6,300

T64

DNP

T18

T21

MC

Seamus Power

$6,200

T18

T54

T13

T27

DNP

Nick Taylor

$6,200

DNP

T26

T54

MC

MC

Matt Kuchar

$6,100

T23

DNP

DNP

DNP

DNP

Gary Woodland

$6,100

T14

5th

W/D

MC

T24

Nick Dunlap

$6,000

DNP

DNP

DNP

DNP

DNP


Email the Fantasy Golf Report here.